Adoption of a new collective goal for climate finance is a very complex, grandiose task. The international expert on climate change Alexey Kokorin told to 24.kg news agency on the sidelines of COP29.
He followed all UN climate conferences and personally attended more than 20 of them.
«The Baku conference is specific: there is one seemingly impossible task, and the rest is somewhat secondary. It is known that now developed countries have roughly fulfilled the promise made in 2009 in Paris to increase financing to $100 billion per year. This had to be done by 2020, but they fulfilled it late — in 2022,» Alexey Kokorin said.
The question now is how to move forward. If we talk in numbers, there are many opinions. The demand of African and other developing countries is $1 trillion, or even more. The media writes about both 2 trillion and 5 trillion.
Developed countries say that they cannot immediately jump from $100 billion to a trillion.
The second difficult point: who to count and who will fill this trillion. The list is strange now, it does not include such countries as Singapore, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, and they really allocate money. There is no such powerful country as China. It is very difficult to say whether it will be possible to agree on these issues.
He believes that the parties will most likely not be able to agree on the amount and timing in Baku.
«They are offering textual compromise options, theoretically they can be accepted. For example, four countries — Brazil, South Africa, India and China — propose to stipulate that it is time to move from billions to trillions. Gradually, by the middle of the century. You will understand this as 2040, I as 2060, and both will be right,» the climate scientist explained.
He emphasized that no one denies that the dominant part of the funds should come from the most developed countries.
«Everything happens slowly at the COP. Probably, one year is not enough for discussion. Therefore, if the financial goal is not adopted in Baku, and it is postponed for a year, I would not consider it as a failure,» Alexey Kokorin shared his opinion.
He also focused on how the UN conference could be useful for the Central Asian countries.
«Kyrgyzstan, like other Central Asian countries, is a recipient of financial resources. At the COP, contacts and partnerships are established, presentations are made on the achievements of the projects. It is very good that the pavilion of the Kyrgyz Republic was opened. Being here, you need to be heard. And Kyrgyzstan is the leader among the Central Asian countries in this.
Look at the daily bulletin of the negotiations, where the countries that spoke are listed. You will probably meet the Kyrgyz Republic five or six times, Kazakhstan twice, Tajikistan the same number, and that’s it. Kyrgyzstan even submitted a special item to the agenda. It was immediately clear that it would most likely not be accepted and would be transformed into a consultation. But this shows that the state is active, wants a lot, promotes the mountains, its specifics. The country should be on everyone’s lips, and the fact that the delegation is ensuring this here is important,» Alexey Kokorin said.
COP29 will last in Baku until November 22.
