Mobilization announced in Russia last autumn changed not only the labor market of the Russian Federation, but also affected the economies of neighboring states — Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Expert of the Solidarity Center Ulan Shamshiev announced at a conference in Bishkek.
He announced the results of an analysis, which showed that Kazakhstan, unlike Kyrgyzstan, managed to quickly adapt to the new conditions and get some benefit from them.
«Together with the acceleration of inflation and migration of people, a flow of enterprises and private businesses to Kazakhstan was observed. The Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov reported in October last year that 56 companies that had left the Russian Federation intended to move their business to the republic. At the same time, the main task was set for state bodies — to maximize the attraction of production capacities to the country’s territory,» the study says.
As a result, the inflow of foreign direct investment into Kazakhstan in the first half of 2022 amounted to $14.5 billion, which is 28 percent more than a year earlier.
According to the Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market of Kazakhstan, over the last three months of 2022, Russians brought more than 40 billion rubles to the banks of the republic, the number of private investors in the country almost doubled and exceeded 400,000 people for eight months.
Another area of economic opportunity was the circumvention of anti-Russian sanctions through the EAEU countries. Increasing volumes of parallel imports have a positive effect on the economies of the states adjacent to the Russian Federation.
«The powerful migration influx in spring and autumn affected, first of all, the prices of rental housing, the occupancy of hotels, especially in the largest cities. In September, housing rent in Kazakhstan increased by an average of 13.1 percent, and compared to September 2021, by 40.7 percent. In addition, mostly relatively wealthy and qualified people, young and middle-aged, came to the republic, which means additional consumer demand for goods and services, opening accounts in local banks.
An increase in demand has a positive effect on the dynamics of economic activity in neighboring countries (construction, IT, the financial sector, trade, hotels and restaurants), but at the same time it accelerates inflation.
The main benefit for the economy of Kazakhstan from the influx of Russians is the opportunity to sell as many goods and services as possible,» the researchers emphasize.
At the same time, it is noted that, despite the large number of Russian citizens who arrived in Kyrgyzstan, economic and infrastructural conditions did not allow attracting significant investments to the country. According to the Population Registration Department under the Ministry of Digital Development of the Kyrgyz Republic, 192,258 Russian citizens arrived in the republic from the beginning of January to September 2022. At least 1,631 Russians applied for citizenship. In 2021, 385 citizens of the Russian Federation applied for citizenship of the Kyrgyz Republic, 226 people of them received it. In 2022, 603 people received citizenship. The Ministry of Digital Development of the Kyrgyz Republic has issued 22,521 personal identification numbers to foreign citizens since the beginning of the year.
The study emphasizes that the only initiative of Kyrgyzstan to attract specialists was the Digital Nomad initiative. However, only 603 foreign citizens used this opportunity.
