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Second wave of COVID-19: Why number of registered cases declines in Kyrgyzstan

There is a slight decline in the incidence of COVID-19 and community-acquired pneumonia in Kyrgyzstan. Does this mean that the situation has stabilized? The Deputy Minister of Health of Kyrgyzstan, Nurbolot Usenbaev, tells in an interview with 24.kg news agency.

— The largest number of patients was registered on November 9 and 10 — more than 570 per day. Last week — not more than 460. Can we say that situation has stabilized?

— There is an epidemiological parameter — effective number coefficient. How many people a sick person can infect. If it is one, then this is one. In this position, stabilization of the situation begins. We now have it just about one.

The second indicator is the growth rate. We usually take data for the last two weeks for analysis, compare them with the previous ones. This is done to roughly calculate what will happen next. The growth rates in Kyrgyzstan are also stable today.

— It turns out that the situation is stabilizing a little?

There is little stability — with fairly high levels of morbidity, daily registration of new cases.

Nurbolot Usenbaev

— There is a high level of laboratory confirmed cases in Bishkek, Chui region now.

Do not forget that the flu season is ahead, the number of cases usually increases in December. Therefore, combination of two infections is possible. The population needs to be doubly careful during this period, because it is possible to contract both the flu and COVID-19. And the worst variant is that a co-infection is possible, when you simultaneously contract two diseases. This is a huge health threat.

People need to comply with all sanitary and epidemiological standards, not to visit crowded places without the need. These are simple rules, it would seem, but many people do not pay attention to this.

Don’t forget to dress for the weather. There are many cold-related diseases now. In general, it is easier for a sick person to get infected with COVID-19, when immune system is weakened.

— How can a person understand whether he or she has an ARVI or COVID-19? Go to Family Medicine Center?

— Call 118, your Family Medicine Center, your doctor.

If you have fever, take antipyretic drug until mobile team arrives. They can take tests, then they will make a decision on further treatment. Many patients now stay at home, if they have mild or moderate form of the virus.

— Should all family members be tested, if someone from them has a positive test?

— If one of the family members has a positive PCR test, the rest are taken under control. In this case, the contact persons should stay in isolation, at home. If they develop symptoms, they will also be tested.

It often happens that only one family member gets infected.

Nurblot Usenbaev

It depends on immunity system. Simple hygienic rules have to be observed at home: isolate the patient, use soap, sanitizers, often ventilate the apartment or house, and carry out wet cleaning.

— Has the Ministry of Health already analyzed the reason for decrease in detection rate?

— I will say that people still use antiseptics, disinfectants, wear masks, wash their hands more often. The number of intestinal infections has dropped sharply. It is very telling. In addition, the population with antibodies is increasing.

We have a very short period of epidemiological observation, of course, but it seems to me that there is an increase for about a month, then — a standstill for two months, the incidence rate decreases. Then the increase repeats. We expect some growth in December.

— The incidence is growing in Europe again. Can this scenario be repeated in our country? This is exactly what happened in the summer.

— We belong to the European region, but we are a completely different country with our own characteristics. There is no direct correlation with Europe, because the population there is largely urbanized, while in our country — only in large cities — Bishkek and Osh. But communication with other countries is still limited. This is a deterrent. In general, we have to very carefully assess all restrictive measures, because this is related to the economic side. People have to live on something.