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Month of self-isolation leads to losses of about 1.3-2 percent of annual GDP

Month of self-isolation leads to losses of about 1.3-2 percent of annual GDP in Kyrgyzstan. Updated macro review of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) says.

It is noted that, in general, losses from 30 days of quarantine are estimated at 1.5-2.4 percent of the annual GDP of the EDB member countries. Moreover, the largest losses may be in Kazakhstan — 1.6-2 percent. Differences in the effects for each of the states depend, among other things, on the structural features of the economy.

«The basic scenario of the EDB forecast includes presumption of quarantine measures in Russia for a month, in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan — a month and a half, in Armenia — two months. As a result, we estimate the direct negative effect for most countries in the region at 1.5-3 percent of GDP. It should be noted that, in addition, secondary effects are possible, associated with weak domestic demand due to the deterioration of economic sentiment and financial condition of organizations (primarily small and medium-sized businesses),» the macro review says.