In the absence of additional negative shocks in 2019, pressure on the national currencies of the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union and Tajikistan is expected to decrease. The monthly macroeconomic review of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) says.
According to it, the increased volatility of the exchange rates of the EDB countries in 2018 was formed against the background of instability in energy source prices and increased geopolitical risks, which was accompanied by a significant outflow of capital from the region. Amid increasing inflation risks, the monetary authorities of the EDB countries halted easing of monetary conditions in the second half of 2018, and the central banks of Russia and Kazakhstan raised their key rates.
In 2019, at the same time, it is predicted that the pressure on the national currency will be reduced.
«This will be facilitated by the projected recovery in oil prices due to the restriction of production within OPEC + and the likely reduction in capital outflows due to a slowdown or cessation of interest rate growth in developed countries (primarily in the U.S.),» the review says.
