GDP growth in Kyrgyzstan will reach 3.1 percent at year-end 2022. Experts of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) say.
According to them, in 2023 the economy can grow by 3.5 percent, in 2024 — by 4.2 percent. The economy will be supported by fiscal policy measures.
«An increase in output in the gold sector will also give impetus to economic growth. At the same time, assumptions about the expected volumes of gold production are hereinafter associated with a high degree of uncertainty. Business activity in the services sector may increase due to increased demand from non-residents, which in turn will be the reason for the reorientation of tourist routes. We believe that the number of tourists from Russia in Kyrgyzstan will increase due to the closure of a number of other destinations for Russian citizens,» the bank analysts say.
The accelerating growth trend will continue in 2024. The key factor will be an increase in gold production. A gradual recovery of the world’s key economies from recession will have an additional positive impact.
Inflation in the republic at the end of the year may reach 14 percent. But already in 2023 it will slow down to 5.2 percent, and in 2024 it will be 4.8 percent.
«Strengthening of the som, which began in mid-spring 2022, will partly offset the effect of external pro-inflationary factors in early 2023. High prices on world food markets and delays in deliveries will continue to put upward pressure on domestic prices in Kyrgyzstan in the first half of next year. In the second half of the year, as the situation in the external sector stabilizes, the slowdown rate in inflation will increase,» the bank’s macroeconomic outlook says.
