Kazakhstan entered 2022 on a wave of mass popular protests. Rallies began on January 2. Residents of Zhanaozen and Aktau in Mangistau region protested against an increase in the price of liquefied gas. It has been doubled from 60 tenge to 120 tenge. Then the protests spread to other regions. Almaty suffered the most from the pogroms and looting.
The President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said later that the city had been attacked by 20,000 terrorists. The countrywide terrorist threat level was red. However, a day later the president deleted the message about 20,000 terrorists.
The law enforcers began mopping up operations by the orders of the authorities. The operation still continues. A state of emergency has been declared in the country until January 19. At the request of the head of state, the CSTO sent peacekeeping units to Kazakhstan. Kyrgyzstan’s Scorpion special unit is participating in the peacekeeping mission.
The situation is gradually stabilizing; constitutional order has been restored in all regions. There is no need to prolong the presence of peacekeepers.
Withdrawal of CSTO forces from Kazakhstan will begin in two days.
Meanwhile, experts are still searching for an answer to the question: was it a failed attempt of a color revolution, a crisis of dual power, or a social upheaval?
We cannot wait any longer
Kazakhstan is a major player on the international scene, and there can be no event, which would not affect the balance of power in the region.
The Kazakhstani political scientist Dosym Satpayev in his commentary to 24.kg news agency stated that the situation could not be corrected by any minor changes, in particular, personnel reshuffles and «decapitation» of the power block. Radical reforms and systemic proposals are needed. The expert believes that the first step in this direction should be the final expulsion of Kazakhstan’s first president Nursultan Nazarbayev (there has been no news about him since the protests started — Note of 24.kg news agency) from big politics. His family members and the oligarchs close to them should also stop feeling that they are the masters of life.
«It seems from the outside that Kazakhstan is a successful state in social and economic terms. A large part of the population is very disappointed with their socio-economic situation. No middle class has appeared for 30 years. About 70 percent of the population can rather be classified as poor. Many are dependent on credit. One million children live in poor families. This is a failure in socio-economic terms. Naturally, people began to wonder why the population lives poorly in such a rich country? Add to that the lack of political rights. Nothing has changed since Tokayev came to power,» Dosym Satpayev said.
Nursultan Nazarbayev, his family and his oligarchs still run the country. Power and business are closely linked. It all reminds me of Kyrgyzstan in Askar Akayev’s time.
Dosym Satpayev
Political scientist Sheradil Baktygulov agrees with him. After such drastic upheavals, a sobering must come, he said. Otherwise a repetition of events is inevitable. He reminded that Kazakhstan is one of the largest country in terms of oil reserves. Moreover, at least 40 percent of uranium is mined in Kazakhstan, there are huge deposits of coal.
«But at the same time, the main income goes into the pockets of 163 oligarchs, and the vast majority of Kazakhstanis live in poverty. Add to this the fact that there are more radical young people in Kazakhstan than, for example, we have in Kyrgyzstan. And there are more marginalized people,» Sheradil Baktygulov said.
It turns out that three or four cities are doing well. Of course, the situation needs to be changed, and Tokayev understands this. So there will be progress, but it will not do without outbursts of violence.
Sheradil Baktygulov
It seems that the people in the echelons of power have a similar opinion as well. Speaking yesterday at the Majilis session Kassym-Jomart Tokayev stated that " thanks to the first head of state, Elbasy, a group of very profitable companies and a layer of rich people, even by international standards, have appeared in the country.«
According to the head of the republic, the time has come to give due respect to the people of Kazakhstan and help them on a systematic and regular basis.
«The Government will have to determine the circle of enterprises and agree with them on the amount of annual contributions to the fund. In addition, I expect active participation from those individuals who, in fact, possessing huge funds, are in the shadows,» he said.
The president of Kazakhstan also instructed to conduct an audit of Samruk-Kazyna fund, affiliated with Nursultan Nazarbayev’s family and all of its structural subdivisions, to revise the order of state procurement. «If it is impossible to reform the fund, the country’s economy will do without it,» Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said.
Expert circles immediately started talking about the upcoming campaign to «defund» the wealthy, pointing at Kyrgyzstan. After Sadyr Japarov came to power, the rich also began to be shaken down. This process was called «kusturization» in Kyrgyzstan.
However, another Kazakh political scientist Daniyar Ashimbayev doubts that the Kyrgyz scenario will be repeated in Kazakhstan and proposes not to confuse «uncovering» with state projects.
The authorities need to understand — if they do not carry out reforms now, they will not be able to survive the next wave of protests.
Daniyar Ashimbayev
According to him, the problem is the deafness of the ruling elite. Hence the total inefficiency, irresponsibility and lack of transparency in decision-making. Each new mistake leads to increase in social tension.
What will happen to us?
Experts are convinced that without cardinal reforms, without nullifying presence of Nazarbayev’s clan, protests will break out regularly and some day will reach critical point. They do not rule out the possibility that radicals will take advantage of the situation.
«Any turmoil in Kazakhstan is disastrous for Kyrgyzstan. We are a single socio-economic organism. All goods go to us through Kazakhstan as a transit zone — from fuels and lubricants to chicken eggs. But if our neighbor closes the border, we will face an economic blockade. We are the ones who are ready to welcome everyone with open arms and cancel PCR testing at the entrance. The Kazakhs are used to acting differently. People say here: «This is an internal affair of Kazakhstan.» Look, in our region, everyone is so closely intertwined with each other that there is no such a thing as an internal affair. Especially in recent events, the fact of a terrorist attack was really present, and this is already a threat for all Central Asia, especially for Kyrgyzstan. In 1999, if you remember, the militants of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan militants were sorting out relations with Islam Karimov (the first president of Uzbekistan. — Note of 24.kg news agency) on our territory,» said the expert Igor Shestakov.
Andrei Grozin, head of the Kazakhstan and Central Asia Department at the Institute of CIS Countries, disagreed. On the contrary, he believes that the crisis in Kazakhstan will not cause more political instability in Kyrgyzstan.
«The President of the Kyrgyz Republic Sadyr Japarov is a person who is quite firmly seated in the place that he won in October 2020 in a bitter struggle. it’s all settled. Steam is blown off periodically in the form of social protests. Kyrgyzstan is the safest state in the region in this respect,» he said.
Riots like those in Kazakhstan are more likely to occur in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, the expert suggested.
By the way, the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko also hinted at Uzbekistan at an extraordinary session of the CSTO. However, other analysts call these predictions wrong. But everyone agrees on one thing: the events in Kazakhstan will lead to sweeping purge of the media in the countries of the region and tightening of the screws. It is true that these measures are unlikely to affect Bishkek. Civil society here is too strong and the state institutions are too weak.
