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Kyrgyzstan’s economy in 2018. State forecasts come true

Following the results of 2018, we can state that the economy of Kyrgyzstan has grown, and exactly as much as the Economy Minister Oleg Pankratov predicted a month ago. Growth in prices for the year remained minimal.

Promised 3.5 percent

In January — December 2018, Kyrgyzstan’s GDP reached 557,113.3 billion soms. Compared with 2017, the figure grew by 3.5 percent.

According to the National Statistical Committee, the economic growth achieved in 2018 was provided by the branches of commodity production (by 5.1 percent) and the services sector (by 2.1 percent).

Compared with November 2018, GDP grew by 82,583.6 billion soms in December.

It is interesting that for the year the growth of the economy is the same both with and without gold mining at Kumtor. Without taking Kumtor into account, Kyrgyzstan’s GDP is 509,140.4 billion soms.

This growth was predicted by the Minister of Economy Oleg Pankratov.

«We talked about trends in the economy in the middle of the year, about the fact that the situation would change at the beginning of autumn. Our predictions were confirmed. We expect that December will bring more percentage points. Perhaps, GDP will grow by 3.5 percent by the end of 2018,» the minister said to 24.kg news agency.

Mine coal, produce clothes

The sharp increase in gold production had a positive impact not only on the growth of the economy as a whole, but also on industry. At the end of 2018, it managed to not only keep the high pace of 2017, but also grow a little.

In 2018, Kyrgyzstan produced industrial products for 250,640.1 billion soms, which is 5.4 percent more than in 2017.

Compared with November, industrial production increased by 29,559.9 billion soms.

In addition, the production of petroleum products (by 8.9 percent), food products (including drinks) and tobacco products (by 4.7 percent), as well as base metals (by 4.4 percent) has grown in Kyrgyzstan in 2018.

But the decline in production compared with 2017 was also registered. Thus, the production of machinery and equipment (by 36.5 percent), vehicles (by 18.1 percent) and mining of metal ores (by 8.7 percent) decreased.

Excluding the enterprises for the development of Kumtor mine, production reached 148,443.9 billion soms with an increase of 7.3 percent.

Expensive vegetables, millet and milk

According to official data, prices did not rise, but fell in 2018 in Kyrgyzstan. But in the last months of the year, everything changed and the National Statistical Committee began to record inflation.

For example, in December 2018, compared with November, consumer prices and tariffs all over the republic increased by 0.7 percent. Their largest growth (1.4 percent) was registered for food and non-alcoholic beverages.

Prices for fresh vegetables (by 11.3 percent), millet (1.5 times) and milk (by 4.9 percent) increased in December 2018. Prices for non-food products in December 2018, compared with November, increased by 0.2 percent, alcoholic beverages and tobacco products — by 0.1 percent.

Tariffs for services to the population practically did not change in December. An increase in consumer prices was observed throughout the country, with the exception of Batken region (a drop in prices by 0.5 percent). The largest increase in consumer prices (1.1 percent) was in Naryn region.

The inflation rate in the consumer sector in January-December 2018 was 0.5 percent, which is 3.2 percent lower than in 2017.

Tobacco products (by 17.3 percent) and services (by 4.1 percent) grew most of all. Prices for non-food products increased by 1.4 percent, alcoholic beverages — by 2.8 percent, while prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, on the contrary, dropped by 2.6 percent.

In 2018, a decline in consumer prices and tariffs was recorded in Batken (by 1.8 percent) and Chui (by 0.3 percent) regions, while their maximum growth (3.7 percent) was observed in Naryn region.

Where salaries do not grow?

According to the National Statistical Committee, the average salary in Kyrgyzstan in 2018 was 15,747 soms. This is 5.9 percent more than in the same period of 2017.

The growth of an average monthly wage was observed at the enterprises and organizations of all types of economic activity with the exception of hotels and restaurants.

According to the results of January-September 2018, the subsistence minimum in Kyrgyzstan amounted to 4,654.77 soms, for people of working age — 5,020 soms.