Head of the Department for Central Asia and Kazakhstan at the Institute of CIS Countries Andrey Grozin commented to 24.kg news agency on the military conflict at the Kyrgyz-Tajik border.
According to him, there is a weak control on both sides, when each of the participants acts on the basis of their own ideas about what is good and what is bad.
«Both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have weak coordination between the center and the periphery. The population is not controlled by anyone at the local level, and as a result, we are witnessing a complete mess and chaos. As for the fact that they brought heavy military machinery, it is obvious that they wanted to flex their muscles. I think that the Tajiks were obviously waiting for something like this, did not prepared, but waited. The military exercises that took place in Batken provoked them into such a lightning-fast redeployment of weapons to the borders with Kyrgyzstan,» the expert said.
The Tajiks decided that it is the time now to show strength, put pressure on the Kyrgyz side and resolve the border issue.
Andrey Grozin
He believes that it is necessary to get out of the acute phase of confrontation as soon as possible. First of all, it is necessary to follow exactly those diplomatic steps that were announced earlier, and not try to deceive your neighbor and gain something.
«There is no other way out. Should not we, after all, bring in Russian peacekeepers according to the Karabakh scenario? This is an extreme option. None of the sides has such an advantage in resources, as, for example, in the same Azerbaijan in relation to Armenia. Therefore, it will not be possible to conduct a protracted military conflict,» the analyst said.
So far, Bishkek and Dushanbe have shown their intention to resolve the conflict on their own. To do this, it is necessary to act according to the accepted algorithm. This issue cannot be resolved by force. Simply because there are not enough forces.
Andrey Grozin
He also added that the inability to quickly resolve the border issue in Kyrgyzstan is hampered by constant coups, entailing a change of power and, as a result, personnel reshuffle.
«All these factors do not contribute to emergence of a responsible and long-term course for the implementation of decisions, in particular, search for solutions along the borders, creation of a staff of experts. When people in a specialized commission are ready to leave and are replaced at such a high rate, what can be expected of them? Tajiks have more stability. But they are determined to defend their positions without seeking compromises, which is also not good. Because in such matters it is necessary to be able to negotiate. Take this moment in to account also: Emomali Rahmon is going to ensure transit of power and transfer the reins of government to his son Rustam. However, the elite in Dushanbe, both political and general, are not ready to unanimously accept such a transition. Therefore, concessions on territorial issues are extremely unprofitable for the head of Tajikistan now. Unprofitable solution of the border issue, as it seems to the majority, for Sadyr Japarov may turn out to be fatal at all,» the expert stressed.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan agreed to cease fire and withdraw military forces to the places of their previous deployment on April 29 at night.
At least 163 victims sought medical help, 33 people were killed, including a child, in Kyrgyzstan.
Golovnoy water distribution point is located at the source of the water canals replenishing Tortkul reservoir on the territory of Kyrgyzstan.
May 1-2, 2021 were declared the Days of National Mourning in the Kyrgyz Republic.
