Growth in prices for fuels and lubricants is influenced by the cost of a barrel of oil, the export price (netback), devaluation of the national currency and the amount of available resources. The Association of Oil Traders of Kyrgyzstan reported.
The Association stressed that the world oil reserves have reduced, and the demand for it is recovering as the world economy is dealing with the crisis. As a result, the cost of oil rose by 21 percent in February. According to some forecasts, the oil price may rise to $ 70-80 per barrel in the near future, as the supply does not cover the growing demand.
The export price for diesel fuel, according to the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange, in February 2021 alone increased by 11 percent, AI-92 gasoline rose in price by 15 percent, AI-95 gasoline — by 17 percent.
According to Platts, an American news agency, quotations on global markets have risen by 55 percent since the beginning of the year.
Devaluation of the national currency for the year reached 22 percent. Som depreciated by 15 soms.
«The income of oil and gas companies in our country is formed in soms, but contracts for the supply of petroleum products are concluded only in US dollars, since the dollar’s position in international settlements is unshakable. This is how exporters protect themselves from currency (exchange rate) losses associated with changes in the exchange rate of national monetary units,» the Association explained.
In addition, due to the accident at the Khabarovsk refinery, Russia deployed volumes from the Urals and Siberia to the Far East. The gasoline crisis in the Far East resulted in the shortage of fuel in Irkutsk Oblast, Buryatia and the Trans-Baikal Territory. According to the available information, some gas filling stations work directly «from the wheels»; when a car comes, it is sent straight to the gas filling station, while others report that the fuel is enough for three days and are awaiting delivery.
«The Urals and Siberia are the main regions supplying oil products to Kyrgyzstan. Therefore, the redistribution of volumes for the internal needs of the Russian Federation creates a shortage of product in our market, since oil traders cannot receive the required volumes or get unloading with a delay due to a lack of resources at the factories,» the Association said.
As for Kazakhstan, the prices of fuels and lubricants at gas filling stations are growing there as well. Over the past three weeks, gasoline has risen in price by 10 tenge per liter. According to experts, the price will grow and within a month may be at the level of 185-200 tenge per 1 liter in retail. If we talk about the supply of a resource from the neighboring country, then it is possible only if Kazakhstan has a surplus. But in March and April, there will be no export quota for gasoline and diesel fuel from Kazakhstan due to technical problems at Atyrau refinery. The entire volume of fuel will be directed to the domestic market.
«Considering all these factors, there may be a temporary shortage of gasoline and diesel fuel on the oil products market in Kyrgyzstan. In addition, the price of fuel and lubricants will increase by 7-10 soms per liter. This is without taking into account the possible increase in the excise tax, which may increase the cost of a liter by about 2 soms. OPEC + meeting will be held on March 4. Traders believe that OPEC + will decide to increase production what could result in a decline in Brent oil quotations,» the experts concluded.
