Freedom Finance Global has been researching consumer confidence, inflation and devaluation expectations of residents of four Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In September 2024, a negative trend is recorded with a decrease in consumer confidence in three countries, although the decline turned out to be small. In addition, a similar situation is observed in the dynamics of inflationary sentiment, which increased in all four countries.
According to analysts, in September, inflation estimates of Kyrgyzstanis showed a noticeable increase for the first time since March of this year. In August, 26.2 percent of respondents felt a very strong increase in prices over the past month; in September, 30.8 percent of respondents felt a very strong increase in prices over the past month.
Estimates of price growth over the past 12 months have also increased at a similar pace.
In September, 50.7 percent of Kyrgyzstanis recorded an acceleration in price growth, while this figure was 46.6 percent in August.
In addition, official data on annual inflation indicate its sharp increase in September from 3.8 percent to 4.9 percent, which is the highest since April.
The inflation expectations of Kyrgyzstanis did not grow as significantly as the inflation estimates, but they were at the highest levels this year. The share of respondents who expect faster price growth in the next 12 months increased from 12.4 percent to 12.9 percent. The share of those who believe that prices will rise very strongly next month also increased from 7.7 percent to 8.7 percent.
As in other countries of the region, meat and poultry were noted among the distinct goods and services for which residents noticed the greatest price increases. This product confidently took the lead from flour, which was held on the first line for 12 months.
The share of respondents who chose this product increased from 35 to a record 51.6 percent.
It should also be noted that the list of the top-5 products with the greatest price growth has not changed for 13 months in a row. In September, 39.5 percent of respondents noted flour, 37.4 percent — vegetable oil, 29.9 percent — vegetables and fruits, and 26.8 percent — sugar and salt, in addition to meat and poultry.
Among the products mentioned, an increase in concern is observed only for vegetables and fruits. It should be noted that meat prices rose sharply during the month by 5.3 percent MoM in September, according to official statistics, which has not happened since May 2007. Vegetable prices also increased significantly by 2.9 percent MoM, although fruits continued to fall in price compared to the previous month (-4.7 percent). Prices for oils and fats increased by 1.8 percent MoM. The last time prices rose so rapidly in April 2022.
Freedom Finance Global PLC is a broker that is part of the International Freedom Holding Corp.
The company is registered in Kazakhstan under international law and provides brokerage services in the financial market. It provides its clients with access to international trading platforms in Europe, the USA, China and Russia. The firm’s activities are regulated by the Astana Financial Services Authority.
