21:33
USD 89.51
EUR 96.93
RUB 0.97

Global economic recovery expected due to mass vaccination against COVID-19

«We expect an economic upturn, which will be a result, among other things, of mass vaccination,» Evgeny Vinokur, Chief Economist at the Eurasian Development Bank said.

According to him, the high rate of spread of coronavirus could slow down recovery of business activity in the world in early 2021. After all, some large world economies have tightened quarantine measures due to the high incidence of COVID-19. This will limit global business activity.

At the same time, EDB economists note that reaction of the economies of the bank’s region to the second wave of coronavirus was less painful than to the first. Output of the manufacturing industry of the EAEU following the results of 11 months of 2020 reached the level of 2019. At the same time, domestic demand remained weak. Consumer and investment activity was restrained by the tough sanitary measures against the background of an increase in the incidence of COVID-19, high uncertainty and deterioration in the financial results of organizations.

«We expect weak domestic demand in the EDB member countries at the beginning of this year. Its recovery is predicted from the second quarter as the anti-epidemic restrictions ease. Inflation in the EDB region of operations accelerated in December 2020.

The rise in food prices remains the key inflationary factor. It is largely due to the rise in the cost of food on the world market and impact of weakening currencies of the bank’s member states on prices.

In the coming months, annual inflation in most countries of the region will exceed the target levels. Inflationary processes will slow down in the second half of 2021 as the effects of pass-through of exchange rates and food prices are exhausted,» Evgeny Vinokur said.

Popular