Developing Asia could lose from $ 16 to $ 42 billion due to coronavirus. A new analysis of the Asian Development Bank says.
The ongoing outbreak of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) will have a significant impact on developing Asian countries through numerous channels, including a sharp decline in domestic demand, reduction in tourism and business travel, trade and industrial relations, supply disruptions, and health effects, analysis of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says.
The size of economic losses will depend on how the outbreak develops, which remains uncertain. The range of scenarios explored in the analysis suggests global impacts ranging from $ 77 to $ 347 billion, or from 0.1 to 0.4 percent of the global gross domestic product (GDP).
In the worst case scenario, China will lose $ 234 billion, or 1.7 percent of GDP, and developing Asia — $ 42 billion, or 0.5 percent of GDP.
In a moderate case scenario, when safety measures and restrictions, such as travel bans, begin to loosen three months after the outbreak intensified and restrictions were introduced in late January, global losses could reach $ 156 billion, or 0.2 percent of global GDP. At the same time, China will account for $ 103 billion of these losses, or 0.8 percent of the country’s GDP. The rest of developing Asia will lose $ 22 billion, or 0.2 percent of its GDP.
«There are many uncertainties regarding COVID-19, including its economic impact. This requires concideration of several scenarios to provide a clearer picture of potential losses. We hope that this analysis can help governments, as they are preparing clear and decisive measures to mitigate the effects of this outbreak on the population and the economy,» ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada said.