Freedom Finance Global has been researching consumer confidence, inflation and devaluation expectations of residents of four Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In September 2024, a negative trend is recorded with a decrease in consumer confidence in three countries, although the decline turned out to be small. In addition, a similar situation is observed in the dynamics of inflationary sentiment, which increased in all four countries. Nevertheless, devaluation expectations remained unchanged in the region as a whole, except of Uzbekistan, where concerns about this have grown significantly.
According to analysts, in September, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell in three countries of the region at once. Kyrgyzstan showed a slight decline in the index after six months of growth in a row and reached records. In Uzbekistan, the drop was slightly more significant and almost completely canceled the entire August progress. Tajikistan also experienced a slight decline, but it continues to maintain its leadership in the region. Kazakhstan was the only country in the region that recorded positive monthly dynamics of the index in September.
In Kyrgyzstan, the Consumer Confidence Index showed a slight decline in September after six months of growth in a row.
The CCI fell by 1.3 points for the month, and reached 140.7 points. This time, four of the five sub-indexes that determine the composite level of the index showed a decline. The greatest decline is recorded in the matter of favorable conditions for large purchases. Compared to September 2023, the index grew by an impressive 12.9 points.
The sub-index of the current favorable conditions for large purchases fell by 3.5 points compared to August, and reached a level of 107.6 points, which is still the highest value in Central Asia. The share of people who indicate favorable conditions for large expenditures fell from 45.2 percent in August to 43.5 percent in September.
All age groups showed an increase in pessimism, but it is most pronounced among respondents aged 45-59 years. There, the share of those who chose positive responses fell from 43.8 percent to 40.1 percent. The lowest rate is recorded among the older generation over 60 years, where the same indicator fell from 40.5 to 37.2 percent.
Young people under the age of 29 showed the best result with an indicator of 48.2 percent.
It should also be noted that the deterioration is recorded in all regions, except Talas, Naryn and Batken regions. The strongest drop is observed in Chui region, where the share of positive responses decreased by 10.9 points, which moved the region to the last place. On the other hand, a sharp improvement is observed in Talas and Naryn regions, where the share of favorable conditions for large purchases increased by 29 and 19 points, respectively. As a result, Naryn region became the leader of September with a score of 57.1 percent.
Freedom Finance Global PLC is a broker that is part of the International Freedom Holding Corp.
The company is registered in Kazakhstan under international law and provides brokerage services in the financial market. It provides its clients with access to international trading platforms in Europe, the USA, China and Russia. The firm’s activities are regulated by the Astana Financial Services Authority.
