Inflation is expected to decline by the end of 2023 due to stable dynamics of its food component. The National Bank of Kyrgyzstan gives such a forecast.
This is primarily due to an increase in grain yields in Russia, which will eventually lead to a record harvest in 2023. The forecast for non-food inflation remains at moderately high values (about 13.5 percent on average in 2023) with a gradual decline by the end of 2024.
In the current forecast, the contribution of administrative prices remains at a persistently high level due to the actual contribution of electricity tariffs increase (in May 2023), heat and hot water tariffs (in June 2023).
Despite the high base amid high price increases during 2022, the inflation rate (December 2023 to December 2022) is projected to be below 10 percent.
This is due to the continued slowdown in food inflation and continued high inflation expectations and stable core inflation.
«Taking into account the monetary policy pursued by the National Bank and with the development of the situation in accordance with the forecast of the baseline scenario, annual inflation will return to the targets of 5-7 percent by the beginning of 2025,» the National Bank noted.
