«It is highly likely that the period of abnormal strengthening of the Russian ruble is over,» said Evgeny Vinokurov, chief economist at the Eurasian Development Bank, commenting on the bank’s monthly macro outlook.
The situation in the economies of the region is developing in different ways. If the economies of Russia and Belarus experienced a decline in the first half of the year, then steady GDP growth continues in all other EDB member countries. Good results were achieved thanks to the government’s stimulating policy, high prices for energy resources, metals and agricultural products.
In general, GDP of the EDB region of operations in the first half of 2022 remained at the level of the same period of the previous year.
«Indicators of economic growth following the results of the current year in most of the member states of the bank will turn out to be better than forecasts. This, in particular, is facilitated by a fairly high rate of adaptation to the imposed restrictions and the deferred nature of sanctions in oil production. Actions of the authorities also make a big contribution to supporting the region’s economy: stimulating fiscal policy, a sharp decrease in interest rates in Russia, as well as measures that contribute to the establishment of production and logistics chains,» Evgeny Vinokurov said.
Strengthening of the Russian currency in June-July turned out to be quite significant. But in the second half of the year it will move towards more comfortable levels for the Russian budget and exporters. The intensity of this movement will depend primarily on the recovery in demand for imports.
In the second quarter of 2022, the volume of money transfers of individuals through transfer systems sharply increased in the region.
«For the second month in a row, an absolute record in the entire history of observations is being updated in Armenia. In June, $452 million came from Russia, and in May — $266 million. At the same time, the average monthly volume was $72 million in 2021. Growth in remittances from the Russian Federation to Kyrgyzstan recovered as early as in April, amounting to 14 percent after falling by 33 percent in March. This growth is due to the movement of a large number of individuals between the countries of the region and strengthening of the ruble against the dollar,» Evgeny Vinokurov concluded.
