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Third coup and impunity: What will happen to investment projects?

«After the third coup in Kyrgyzstan, it is simply ridiculous to talk about the country’s investment attractiveness. Outside investors will wait to see. When a certain stabilization occurs, investors who cannot complete the work without significant damage to themselves will look for approaches to the new government, including informal ones,» a Russian expert on Central Asia Azhdar Kurtov said, commenting on the political situation in the republic.

In his opinion, if the Kyrgyz authorities «were unable to stop the looting of the parliament building, then there is no need to talk about the inviolability of the property of foreign business and guarantees of the security of business entities outside the capital.»

«It is impossible to quickly redeploy security forces to the mountains of Kyrgyzstan, where the fields are located, in case of a danger. If the building of the Parliament of the republic is only a certain symbol of power, then the deposits are of more practical importance — the enterprises provide the republican budget revenues,» he said.

Unfortunately, Kyrgyzstan has a tradition of impunity for attacks on investors.

Azhdar Kurtov

«If we recall past incidents, no one was ultimately punished for pressure and threats against foreign businessmen, no one was actually punished for creating obstacles in the work of enterprises or causing damage to them. And these are criminal offenses,» the expert stressed.

In this situation, it is ridiculous to talk about the country’s investment attractiveness. But there will be no massive outflow of foreign investors from the country.

Azhdar Kurtov

«Most of the serious projects bringing tangible sums to the country’s budget have been operating in Kyrgyzstan for several years. But even for them, the current situation is a reason to think about the strategic course of their projects. This is bad news for the country. As soon as the risks begin to outweigh the potential profit, the investor will look for ways to withdraw and wind down the work,» Azhdar Kurtov said.

The expert noted that now Bishkek, «regardless of who will be in power, needs to seriously think about how to keep those investors who are still there.»

The line of those wishing to invest in projects in Kyrgyzstan after the third coup will become even shorter than it was before.

Azhdar Kurtov
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