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Half of year results. Economy revives, prices rise

According to the results of the first half of 2017, the economic situation is positive. However, in fact, last year low base effect has its impact. Compared to the data of 2015, when growth was more significant, the picture is less optimistic.

Relative GDP growth

According to the results of the first half of the year, GDP amounted to almost 194 billion soms and increased by 6.4 percent compared to the same period last year. However, in comparison with 2015, there is no growth but a decline of the indicator — by 3.1 percent. Compared with the data for May 2017, the gap with the level of 2015 is decreasing. Over the month, the indicators improved by 2.5 percent.

But in the structure of GDP, the services sector still takes the lion’s share (52 percent). The share of industry is estimated at about 21 percent, agriculture — 8 percent and construction — 6 percent.

However, without taking into account the enterprises on development of Kumtor deposit, the picture is more joyful. GDP is estimated at 172.7 billion soms and grows by 3.1 percent compared to 2016. It seems that the figure is not high. When compared with the data of 2015, it is clear that the economy has overcome a downward trend and has started to grow by more than modest one percent so far. Over the month, the indicator grew by half a percentage point. However, even such modest data indicate that the economy is overcoming the crisis and is gaining momentum.

First steps of the industry

The volume of industrial production is estimated at 104.6 billion soms. Compared to 2016, the indicator grew by 31.6 percent. But compared with 2015, there is a significant drop — by 19.4 percent. Excluding enterprises developing Kumtor, the volume of industrial output is estimated at 59.4 billion soms with growth of 19.7 percent compared to data for 2016 and a decrease of 3.1 percent compared to the first half of 2015.

Deputy Chairman of the National Statistics Committee Azamat Orosbayev noted that GDP growth became possible thanks to increase in the volume of industrial production, construction and services. In the first half of the year, there was also an increase in the production of food products (by 10.3 percent). This is connected with the growth in the volume of processing of fruits and vegetables 1.8 times, flour production — by 30.4% and dairy products — by 20.4%. In addition, the production of men’s and women’s clothing increased by 30.4 percent.

Expensive potatoes and apples

In June, prices for consumer goods and services in the country as a whole increased by 0.4 percent. At the same time, food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 0.5 percent, services — by 0.8 percent, alcoholic beverages and tobacco — by 0.1 percent. But the price of non-food products, on the contrary, has slightly decreased. However, according to the results of the first half of the year, prices increased more significantly.

According to the results of January-June 2017, the inflation rate in the consumer sector was 2.8 percent, while last year prices were 1.8 percent lower on the same dates.

Since the beginning of the year, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 5.2 percent. But services rose in price by 3.8 percent, and tobacco products — by 14.7 percent.

The largest increase in prices was recorded in Talas region. This is connected with a significant increase in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages (by 11.3 percent).

Trade with Russia and Kazakhstan

Foreign trade turnover of Kyrgyzstan for the five months of 2017 amounted to $ 2.3 billion soms. Compared to the previous year, it increased by 15.8 percent, but compared to 2015, a decrease of 13.5 percent is observed. At the same time, exports increased by 30 percent, and imports — by 10.9 percent.

Export deliveries grew due to an increase in the export of men’s knitwear (1.6 times), dried fruits (2.8 times), non-monetary gold (41.3%), precious metals ores and concentrates — by 37.5%.

Trade with the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union takes a large share in the country’s foreign trade turnover. The volume of mutual trade with the states of the Union for January-May 2017 is estimated at $ 874.1 million. Compared to 2016, the indicator grew by 11.4 percent. Russia (51.8 percent) and Kazakhstan (48.2 percent) account for the largest share in trade with EEU countries.

Exports to EEU countries in the first five months of 2017 increased by 29.3 percent, import — by 6.3 percent. At the same time, it should be noted that we still do not reach the level of 2015. The volume of export of goods in comparison with the data of a more successful 2015 decreased by 26.9 percent, while import decreased by 20.7 percent.

Taxes and customs

As for budget revenues, the picture here is more or less stable. The State Customs and Tax Service fulfilled the plan for collecting taxes and payments. Compared to last year, receipts grew by 2,566 billion soms.

For 6 months of 2017, there were collected 33,630 billion soms in taxes. The plan was exceeded by 134 million soms.

For six months, the State Customs Service collected almost 15 billion soms of customs payments. It is noted that in comparison with the approved plan, the fees increased by 1.8 percent, or grew by 261.4 million soms. Compared with the first half of 2016, the receipt of customs payments increased by 1.8 billion soms, or by 14.1 percent.

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