Inflation is expected to reach 11.5 percent at the end of the year (December 2021 compared to December 2020). Such a forecast is contained in the National Bank’s Q3 report on monetary policy.
The central bank notes that the dynamics of consumer prices in Kyrgyzstan this year were influenced by various shocks. The main non-monetary pro-inflationary factors at the end of 2021 are the increase in administered prices and tariffs (electricity and public transport) and a significant decline in agricultural production.
«At the end of the year, the average inflation rate will approach 12 percent. In 2022, annual average inflation is forecast at 9-10 percent and is expected to be in the single digits by the end of the year. The forecast for the next year is based on assumptions about an increase in excise taxes on tobacco products, alcohol products and utility tariffs,» the National Bank said.