The peak of economic recovery is expected in the fourth quarter of 2021 — the first quarter of 2022. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) said.
At the same time, it is noted that the low-water period poses risks to economic activity. The EDB’s forecast assumes a slowdown in price growth next year, given the stability of the som exchange rate and weakening of temporary factors.
According to EDB estimates, GDP growth in Kyrgyzstan will be 3.8 percent in 2021.
Compared to the previous forecast, the estimate was lowered by 0.1 percent. The bank notes that the low-water period has already affected the indicators of agriculture and poses additional risks to the energy sector.
«The key prerequisites for the forecast scenario are social and political stability in the country (parliamentary elections are scheduled for late autumn) and implementation of the production plan at the Kumtor mine. The forecast has a high degree of uncertainty. This is mainly due to the absence of Kumtor’s reports on its production results from the second quarter of this year in open sources. So far, we are of the opinion that in the next two years the company will follow the long-term gold production plan, published by Centerra Gold in February 2021,» the bank says.