The Eurasian Development Bank lowered the forecast for GDP growth in Kyrgyzstan based on the results of 2018. The macroeconomic survey, published on EDB website, says.
A number of factors that can reportedly shift the balance of risks towards accelerating inflation will appear in the second half of 2018. Increased volatility in the regional financial market can be transmitted to the domestic foreign exchange market and contribute to acceleration of inflation through the exchange rate.
«A lower cereal crop is expected in Kazakhstan in 2018-2019, which could potentially interrupt deflation in the domestic market of flour and bakery products. World prices for energy resources fixed at a new, higher level. If this trend continues, the overall price level may rise. Among the current factors, the balance of risks so far tends to maintain a weak inflationary background until the end of 2018,» the report says.
EDB forecasts that by the end of 2018 the economy of Kyrgyzstan will grow by 3.2 percent.
Earlier, the EDB expected 3.4 percent growth. However, following the results of January-July, the forecast was lowered. As for inflation, it can reach two percent at the end of the year in Kyrgyzstan.