Experts expect increase in imports to Kyrgyzstan in last months of 2017

Experts of the Eurasian Development Bank expect an increase in the volume of imports to Kyrgyzstan in the last months of 2017. This is stated in the monthly macro survey of the bank.

It is noted that in the beginning of October new external risks were formed. They can limit growth performance through foreign trade channels. It is likely that the slowdown in the intra-annual dynamics of GDP growth will be more significant than previously expected.

It’s most likely about the complication of the situation on the Kyrgyz-Kazakh border. Due to this earlier, the International Monetary Fund revised the forecast in the direction of reducing GDP growth.

With the decline in gold production and the reduction of supplies to the EEU countries, it is more likely that in the fourth quarter of 2017, export dynamics will become negative.

EDB

Despite the low inflation and a steady increase in the inflow of remittances, indirect indicators indicate a slowdown in the consumer sector. In particular, annual growth rates in retail trade are lower than in the same months of 2016, and the growth of newly accepted deposits has slowed significantly. All this may indicate that we shouldn’t expect an acceleration in the growth of imports in the coming months," the EDB report says.