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Visit to Sochi. Repeated talks with the Kremlin about successor?

The President of Kyrgyzstan plans to go to the city of Sochi on September 14, where an unscheduled meeting with the head of Russia Vladimir Putin should take place.

The meeting will be held at the request of the Kyrgyz side. There is no official agenda for the upcoming talks. According to the sidelines of the seventh floor, official Bishkek had to make a lot of efforts to persuade the Kremlin to find time in the tight schedule of Vladimir Putin and receive Almazbek Atambayev.

The Russian side at first recalled that the Russian President had already said goodbye to the outgoing Almazbek Atambayev back in June — in Moscow during the state visit of the President of Kyrgyzstan. But, apparently, he has to say goodbye again.

Second attempt

Official Bishkek does not voice the true reasons for Almazbek Atambayev’s trip to Russia. Most likely, the press release on the results of the meeting will consists of a traditional phrase, which does not have anything meaningful: «Presidents exchanged views on the current problems of bilateral cooperation.»

As it became known to 24.kg news agency, it is likely that Almazbek Atambayev will propose to the president of the Russian Federation to continue discussing the prospects of his successor Sooronbay Jeenbekov.

In June, during a closed meeting, the President of Kyrgyzstan had already raised this issue. But he had not heard the expected approval of the candidate Jeenbekov by the Kremlin.

Moscow then informed the Kyrgyz leadership that presidential elections are an internal affair of the country. But it hinted to the Kyrgyz side that it was worried by the information of Kyrgyz and Russian special services about the alleged close ties of the Jeenbekovs with radical Arab organizations, including the Arab Society of Social Reforms, which is recognized as a terrorist organization in the Russian Federation.

Daavatchi will be involved in elections

In Moscow’s opinion, situation with some religious movements in Kyrgyzstan has recently become complicated. Tablighi Jamaat organization, which is also listed as prohibited in Russia, is tried, as they say, to be put forward, not without the help of the White House. According to some reports, several paramilitary detachments of this movement fought in Chechnya in the 1990s. The main ideologists of Tablighi Jamaat are in troubled Pakistan and Bangladesh. The Tablighis have a close relationship with the Saudi Wahhabis.

In early 2009, the Kyrgyz Prosecutor General’s Office filed a lawsuit to the courts to recognize the international religious organization Tablighi Jamaat as a terrorist and extremist organization. Members of the Security Council of Kyrgyzstan believed that this movement threatened national security. The case was heard in Pervomaisky District Court of Bishkek with «top secret» mark. But in April the Prosecutor General’s Office unexpectedly filed a petition to withdraw the sounding suit.

Local experts do not rule out that officials can use daavatists as agitators in the upcoming presidential election.

Campaign in figures

What arguments for «the protege» of the Social Democrats can be presented at the meeting of Atambayev with Putin?

Interesting figures were voiced at the last meeting on the election campaign with the newly appointed adviser to the President of Kyrgyzstan, Mukhammetkaly Abulgaziev.

The members of the government and the leadership of the main electoral headquarters of SDPK were presented the expected results for the upcoming voting on October 15.

The president’s environment believes in possible victory of Sooronbay Jeenbekov already in the first round with a result of 55 to 58 percent.

Experts of the presidential administration give 25 percent of the votes to the leader of Respublika Ata Jurt party Omurbek Babanov.

Other favorites of the election campaign — ex-prime minister Temir Sariev and the leader of Onuguu-Progress Bakyt Torobayev are forecasted only 10 percent each.

A caution about the inadmissibility of the second round was voiced at the meeting, because with this outcome the political strategists of the Social Democrats predict the devastating defeat of the candidate from the party of power, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, and the win of Omurbek Babanov by a wide margin.

Apparently, such a picture will be presented in Sochi for the leadership of Russia, although the actual situation with the candidates is somewhat different.

Probability of turbulence

Zhanar Akaev, member of the Parliament, who was expelled from SDPK faction for his position different from the president’s strategy, considers the absence of recognized leader among the candidates as the main problem of the elections.

This, along with the self-preservation instinct, pushes the president’s entourage to use incompatible with elective legislation techniques.

Teachers, doctors, students tell about the urgent demands from their leadership to vote only for a candidate from SDPK. Otherwise, officials and students are threatened with imminent dismissals and expels.

The methods that were so popular in Bakiyev’s time are being used again.

The imposition of one candidate against others on the electorate and the desire to hold elections under the dictation of an administrative resource will inevitably lead to the fact that Kyrgyzstan will split into supporters of Sariev, Babanov, Jeenbekov and Torobayev. And the stability of the political situation will smoothly move into «the instability zone.»

The process of a possible electoral and post-election turbulence can be stopped by Moscow if it requires from the leadership of Kyrgyzstan to hold truly democratic elections.