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Results of 7 months. Economy growing, prices falling

This year, the Kyrgyz economy has no summer vacation. Despite the height of the holiday season, the country’s GDP continues to grow. There is a possibility that by the end of summer the economy will reach the level of 2015.

Due to what the economy is growing

According to the results of seven months of 2017, the country’s GDP formed in the amount of 239.8 billion soms. In comparison with 2016, it grew by 6.9 percent. But relative to 2015, there still remains a fall of 2 percent.

Without taking into account the enterprises developing the Kumtor field, Kyrgyzstan’s GDP grew by 3.6 percent and overcame a negative trend compared to 2015. Growth — 1.3 percent.

A slightly different situation in industrial production. According to the results of January-July 2017, the volume of output is estimated at 124.6 billion soms. Compared to 2016, the figures increased by 32.9 percent. It seems that we should rejoice. However, when compared with the indicators of 2015, the industry is still in stagnation. The fall is 15.5 percent.

Without taking into account Kumtor, the comparison of data with 2015-2016 years also gives a different picture. As compared to the previous year, there is an increase of 22.3 percent, and in relation to 2015, there is still a fall by one percent.

At the same time, there was a drop of 2.3 percent in the production of chemical products. The growth of industry was recorded in all areas, except Naryn oblast.

And prices decided to fall

By the results of July, deflation was registered for the first time in 2017, that is, a fall in prices by one percent. Food and non-alcoholic beverages decreased by 2.3 percent, non-food products — by 0.1 percent, alcoholic beverages — by 0.1 percent. But the tariffs for services rendered to the population increased by 0.6 percent, while tobacco products rose in price by 0.5 percent.

In July, as compared with June, the decline in consumer prices and tariffs was observed in all regions, except for Osh city.

Note, an unprecedented rise in prices for potatoes and cabbage, which has been observed since the beginning of the year, has stopped. However, some goods in July still rose in price.

Since the beginning of the year, the inflation rate in the consumer sector is estimated at 1.8 percent. At the same time, the maximum increase in consumer prices and tariffs — 4.8% — was recorded in the Osh oblast, and the most moderate increase was observed in Bishkek — by 0.7%.

Trade increases

According to the results of seven months of 2017, Kyrgyzstan’s foreign trade turnover is estimated at $ 2.7 billion. Compared with last year, it grew by 12.9 percent. Approximately half of the amount is trade with the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union — $ 1 billion 88 million.

We began to export more dried fruits (2.8 times), glass (2.7 times), knitted menswear (1.8 times), non-monetary gold (40.7%), as well as precious metal ores and precious metals concentrates (by 31 percent).

As for imports, the increase in supplies is associated with an increase in the import of pharmaceuticals, flour confectionery, artificial fiber fabrics, garments, insulated wires and communications equipment.

As for our trade relations with the EEU countries, exports increased by 29.6 percent, imports — by 7.3 percent. The largest share of mutual trade accounts for Russia (60.4 percent) and Kazakhstan (38 percent).

Unemployment and salary

The number of officially registered unemployed at the end of July 2017 amounted to 62,300 people and increased compared to 2016 by 9.3 percent.

The real growth of the average monthly salary in January-June of 2017 was 3.2 percent. In nominal terms, it was formed at the level of 14,691 soms.

National debt grows, so do its costs

As of May 31, 2017, the size of the state debt amounted to $ 4 billion 243 million 52 thousand, or 288 billion 768 million 47 thousand soms. Over the month, it increased by another $ 24 million.

For seven months of 2017, 12 billion 111 million 615.2 thousand soms were spent from the republican budget for servicing the state debt. In particular, 5 billion 262 million 172.2 thousand soms were directed to payments on external obligations. For the maintenance of domestic debt allocated slightly more — 6 billion 849 million 443 thousand soms.