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Results of first quarter: GDP, industry and prices growth

The National Statistical Committee summarized the results of the development of the Kyrgyz economy in the first three months of 2017. The results are quite optimistic. Negative dynamics of last year changed to a positive trend.

Real growth or low base for comparison?

According to the preliminary results of the first quarter, the volume of GDP in Kyrgyzstan amounted to 86, 143.1 billion soms. Compared to the same period of 2016, it grew by 7.8 percent. But compared with January-March 2015, it fell by 6.4 percent.

Without taking into account the enterprises developing Kumtor mine, the GDP amounted to 75, 997.5 billion soms, increasing by 3.9 percent compared to 2016 and by 0.5 percent compared to 2015.

Industrial boom

Industry showed not bad figures for the first three months of the year. The volume of production produced during this time is estimated at 51, 840.2 billion soms, increasing by 35.9 percent as compared to 2016. But compared to the first quarter of 2015, the figures are not so bright: drop of 24.7 percent.

Without taking into account the enterprises developing Kumtor mine, the picture is slightly better. The volume of production amounted to 30, 29.2 billion soms with an increase of 23.8 percent compared to 2016 and a fall of 2.5 percent compared to 2015.

The National Statistical Committee noted that the growth was caused by an increase in the extraction of metal ores (4.3 times), production of basic metals (by 50.6%), the production of refined petroleum products (by 45.9%), clothing (by 31.9%), food products (by 37 percent).

At present, Chui (42.8%) and Issyk-Kul (23%) regions, Bishkek (16.4%) and Jalal-Abad region (10.4%) hold the largest share in the volume of industrial production. The share of industry in the GDP structure is 22.5 percent.

Not enough money for cabbage

The revival in the economic life of the country had an impact on inflation. In the first quarter, the price increase in Kyrgyzstan was 2.1 percent. In March, prices increased by only 0.5 percent.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages grew in price by 3.4 percent, alcohol and tobacco products — by 3.1 percent, services — by 2.6 percent. And non-food products, on the contrary, fell by 0.3 percent in three months. At the same time, vegetables have risen in price significantly.

The largest increase in prices was registered in Osh (3.4 percent), and the lowest - in Batken region (1 percent). In terms of inflation, Kyrgyzstan is second among the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union after Kazakhstan, where the inflation in the first quarter was 2.3 percent. Least of all prices grew in Russia — only by 1 percent.

Export less gold

In the first two months of the year, the number of export shipments decreased by 2.8 percent. The National Statistical Committee associated this with a reduction in supplies of nonmonetary gold by half, ores and slags - by 30.5 percent. At the same time, the supply of fruit (3.8 times), glass (2.6 times), ferrous metals (1.5 times) increased.

The volume of trade with the EEU countries in January-February amounted to $ 331.3 million and increased by 7.3 percent compared to the same period in 2016. Exports increased by 8.6 percent, and imports — by 6.7 percent.

We began to import more dried fruits (8.4 times), cotton fiber (3 times) and glass (2.4 times) to Russia.  We export more milk and condensed cream (2.8 times), confectionery products (2.3 times) and dried fruits (2.4 times) to Kazakhstan.