17:38, 20 апреля 2026, Bishkek - 24.kg news agency , Aibek SULTANOV
Analysts at the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) have revised upward their macroeconomic outlook for Kyrgyzstan. The country’s GDP is now expected to grow by 8.3 percent in 2026, reaching approximately 2,334.8 trillion soms.
Economic growth and fiscal stimulus
The main driver of economic expansion in 2026 will be increased fiscal stimulus. The government plans to boost social spending, including increasing public sector wages, pensions, and child benefits, as well as expand capital investments. This is expected to support growth in construction and consumer demand.
Strong credit growth and rising real incomes will also sustain activity in the trade sector. However, demand is projected to cool in the following years, with GDP growth slowing to 6.7 percent in 2027 and 6.3 percent in 2028.
Inflation and tariffs
Inflation in 2026 is expected to exceed the target range of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic, reaching an average of 7.7 percent, which is 0.6 percentage points higher than previous estimates.
Key inflation drivers include:
In the medium term, tighter monetary policy and easing import price pressures are expected to bring inflation down to around 6.3 percent.
Budget and external sector
The official state budget surplus over the next three years is expected to be 1.9 percent of GDP.The bulk of this inflow will come from non-tax revenues, such as the profit of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic and dividends from state-owned companies.
Funds will be allocated to recapitalize key institutions, including ABank and the State Mortgage Company. However, according to EFSD methodology, when these recapitalization costs are included, the underlying fiscal balance is expected to show a deficit of around 2 percent of GDP.
The current account deficit is projected to narrow to 21 percent of GDP due to reduced imports amid declining transit demand in Eurasian Economic Union countries.
Remittance inflows are expected to fall to 11 percent of GDP, reflecting the weakening of the Russian ruble, slower wage growth in Russia, and a decline in the number of migrant workers.
Gold exports are not expected to increase significantly, as favorable global prices allow the central bank to sell smaller volumes while still meeting profit targets.