12:33, 28 января 2026, Bishkek - 24.kg news agency , Turdubek AIGYROV
The World Bank has published an updated Global Economic Prospects report, according to which economic growth in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region slowed to 2.4 percent in 2025. One of the most significant factors was a decline in private consumption, particularly in Russia, where tight monetary policy continues to weigh on economic activity.
Trade growth in the first half of the year was moderate and largely driven by advance purchases of goods ahead of tariff increases. Global financing conditions eased, sovereign spreads narrowed, and stock markets strengthened. However, external risks for the region remain: weak economic performance in the euro area and rising uncertainty in trade policy are constraining exports, particularly in the automotive sector of Central Europe and the Western Balkans.
Inflation in the region, which had slowed in early 2025, accelerated again in the second half of the year.
Price pressures intensified due to rising food and utility costs—especially in Central Asia and Romania—as well as sustained wage growth. Most central banks chose to keep their monetary policy unchanged.
According to the World Bank’s forecast, growth in the ECA region will remain at 2.4 percent in 2026. Domestic demand is expected to be supported by declining inflation, improved financial conditions, EU funding, and increased defense spending. A moderate recovery in exports is projected for 2027.
Growth in the region excluding Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine is expected to average about 3.1 percent in 2026–2027. At the same time, the outlook highlights serious demographic challenges, including population aging and a shrinking labor force. By 2050, the dependency ratio could rise to 63 percent.
Risks to the forecast remain elevated. An escalation of trade tensions, prolonged geopolitical conflicts, and a potential rise in global interest rates could further weaken economic performance. Conversely, the outlook could improve if the active phase of the conflict in Ukraine ends earlier than expected, accelerating reconstruction investment and boosting investor confidence.
According to the report, the global economy as a whole remains resilient: global growth is projected at 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.7 percent in 2027. However, a quarter of developing countries remain poorer than they were in 2019.