15:56, 05 декабря 2025, Bishkek - 24.kg news agency , Anastasia BENGARD
Strengthening the resilience of Kyrgyzstan’s economy offers the country an opportunity to accelerate economic transformation, create jobs, and protect the population from growing climate risks. The World Bank Group’s recently published Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) says.
According to the Ministry of Natural Resources, Environment, and Technical Supervision, Kyrgyzstan has reduced its poverty rate from 62.6 percent in 2000 to less than 26 percent in 2024. However, economic growth and job creation are lagging behind national development goals. The Cabinet of Ministers aims to achieve upper-middle-income status by 2030, ensure sustainable GDP growth, and create more quality jobs, but climate shocks threaten this.
Increasingly frequent heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, landslides, extreme heat, and drought are expected to hinder the country’s economic development.
These climate impacts are projected to reduce GDP by 2-4 percent by mid-century. The greatest impact will be on agriculture and key infrastructure, affecting food security and the country’s transport connectivity.
By 2040, approximately 170,000 more people, primarily in rural areas, could fall below the poverty line.
Agriculture could face irrigation water shortages of up to 24 percent and annual income losses of 5-10 percent. Infrastructure—primarily roads and bridges—will require significantly higher maintenance costs: annual repair costs could exceed $100 million.
An increase in landslides will increase the risk of flooding, and potential damage to infrastructure could increase by up to 72 percent.
«At the same time, a number of economic sectors could benefit from these changes. Hydropower production could increase by up to 11 percent by 2050 due to increased river flow, although siltation of reservoirs will reduce their efficiency. Achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 could ensure cleaner air, strengthen energy security, significant energy savings, up to $3.5 billion in electricity export revenues, and approximately $3 billion in savings on petroleum product imports. Investments in public infrastructure could attract the private sector, but realizing these benefits will require approximately $10 billion in additional investment in energy, construction, and transportation,» the report states.
Adaptation and employment
Adaptation, particularly in infrastructure, could create approximately 20,000 jobs in construction. Decarbonization, aimed at improving energy security, developing renewable energy, and increasing energy efficiency, could create an additional 20,000–25,000 jobs in agriculture, construction, and high-tech manufacturing. These opportunities primarily drive demand for skilled labor, so the poorest households will require targeted support.
Without adaptation, productivity and employment growth could be constrained, especially among vulnerable groups.
The CCDR estimates that «climate proofing» critical sectors will require less than 0.2 percent of GDP annually, amounting to approximately $1 billion by mid-century. Priority measures include addressing water shortages, promoting climate-resilient crops, strengthening infrastructure, and enhancing emergency preparedness.
Nature-based solutions, such as landscape restoration, could reduce landslide damage by up to $26 million.
Financing needs
The report notes that Kyrgyzstan can effectively address climate risks through joint efforts of the public and private sectors. Adaptation costs are expected to be covered by public resources without compromising macroeconomic stability due to the sustainability of public finances.
A more dynamic private sector can accelerate economic growth and reduce climate-related losses, while decarbonization costs will increase debt without undermining its sustainability by 2050. Key instruments will include carbon pricing, green incentives to attract private investment, regional hydropower cooperation, and international climate finance.
The report outlines key recommendations: