Another incident occurred at the Kyrgyz-Tajik border on April 28, 2021. It began near Golovnoy water distribution point in Kok-Tash village of Batken region. A verbal skirmish turned into a fight: the sides began to throw stones at each other. Then a shooting began.
The tension was brought under control by May 3 only. At least 190 Kyrgyzstanis were injured in the conflict, 36 people were killed, including children. More than 40,000 people were evacuated from the conflict zone. The Tajik side unofficially reported more than 150 wounded and about 16 killed.
A month has passed. The parties manage to maintain the status quo. An intergovernmental group continues negotiations on demarcation and delimitation of some sections of the border.
Andrei Kazantsev, Professor at the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs of the National Research University — Higher School of Economics, Chief Researcher at the Institute for International Studies of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, named the results of the conflict, answering the questions of 24.kg news agency.
— Summing up the results of the April incident at the border a month later, what, in your opinion, should Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan not do now?
— They should not build up tension. If active hostilities begin, no matter with what intensity, even with the use of small arms only, it will be very difficult to resolve the conflict by peaceful means.
Look what is happening on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Disputes over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh have been resolved, but they cannot resolve border issues. The conflict continues, the process has not been stopped.
The border issue between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is also historically complex. If the conflict moves to the level of use of heavy artillery, when the number of deaths from dozens of people grows to hundreds, it will not be possible to resolve the issue peacefully.
Andrei Kazantsev
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan must understand on what verge they were. They were one step away from use of Grad multiple launch rocket system, heavy artillery or aviation against the squares and cities.
The parties should not bring the situation to such a state.
— What position does Moscow take in this conflict? Do they support any of the parties, what they want?
— Judging by the latest meetings with the presidents of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, Moscow unequivocally does not support any of the parties in the past conflict.
Russia is interested in no war between Dushanbe and Bishkek. Both countries are members of the CSTO, armed with Russian weapons, Russian military bases are located on the territory of the both countries, the security forces of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan study at Russian military universities. In addition, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are linked with Russia through migration contacts.
Therefore, in case of a war between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which fortunately has been avoided, Russia would be the third victim.
— The border conflict was accompanied by an active informational confrontation between the parties. Whose version of events was best brought up to an external audience?
— Kyrgyzstan, unambiguously, won the information war. This happened due to the fact that Kyrgyzstan has a more open society, which has more connections with the outside world. There are more representative offices of various news agencies in Bishkek than in Dushanbe.
Most importantly, the degree of globalization, inclusion of Kyrgyzstan in international information flows is much higher.