The Ministry of Health and Social Development reported that four types of coronavirus strains circulate in Kyrgyzstan: British (new strain), Indian (new variant), South African (old variant) and the one from the Russian Federation. Zuridin Nurmatov, head of the Republican Scientific and Practical Center for Control of Viral Infections «Preventive Medicine», told 24.kg news agency how they can affect the epidemiological situation in the country.
— Kyrgyzstanis were stunned by the news of circulation of four new strains of coronavirus in the country, including the British one. Will it aggravate the epidemiological situation in the republic?
— I have said as far back as on April 2 that I was absolutely sure that the British variant has been circulating in Kyrgyzstan, although there was no laboratory confirmation of this. But epidemiological signs showed it. If you look at the map of the world, then the UK variant has not been identified in just a few countries, including Kyrgyzstan. But this does not mean that there is not any, laboratory tests were simply not carried out.
According to forecasts, modeling of the epidemiological situation, there should not be the third increase in incidence. But it happened.
Zuridin Nurmatov
The British strain is characterized by high contagiousness — its spread rate is higher than that of the previous variants by almost 70 percent. Therefore, more people who do not have antibodies began to get infected. Circulation of four strains was officially announced the day before, as evidenced by the results of a study by the Reference Laboratory of the World Health Organization and the Federal Budgetary Scientific Institution State Research Center of Virology and Epidemiology VECTOR (Novosibirsk) of the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor).
— There was a little information about Indian strain in Kyrgyzstan. What kind of mutation it is?
— The virus is constantly mutating. The human body is a new habitat for it, where it has to live.
In order to live in the body, the virus must take several steps. This is the law of nature, the struggle for survival.
First, it should not kill a person. Remember, when the coronavirus first appeared in the human population, its mortality rate was 6.7 on average — about 7 percent of the total number of patients died. This coefficient is 2.2 now. This means that it completed its first task.
The second step is to reduce its toxicity. In other words, people should have mild form of the disease. This is also done. The third task — the virus needs to have a high contagiousness.
No one in the world says now that mortality or severity has increased due to new strains, only the transmission rate.
Zuridin Nurmatov
— The Minister of Health and Social Development Alymkadyr Beishenaliev recently linked the increase in the incidence with holding of local elections...
— The level of morbidity is primarily influenced by human behavior. Why do we say that people have to wear masks, keep distance, wash hands — this helps to fight the spread of the disease. As for the elections... People had more contacts. This is also a factor. Nobody excludes it.
— Many Kyrgyzstanis fear that they may get sick again due to new strains. Are their fears justified?
— No, they are not. No virus can completely change its properties to overcome antibodies or the immune system acquired after the previous virus for a year.
People cannot get infected again. The produced antibodies protect, they kill the virus that enters the body.
— But do antibodies disappear over time?
— This is not true. Who can say that antibodies disappear in six months, a year, a year and a half? Research is still going on in the world, so much time has not passed yet, such research could not be carried out.
Yes, a person can get infected. But it does not mean that the person will get sick. This says that the virus has got into the body, but antibodies are fighting against it.
— Does it make sense to get vaccinated when there is a constant mutation of the virus? There are different opinions in the world how existing vaccines work on new strains.
— People have to get vaccinated. The vaccine prevents death, severe form of the disease.
The vaccine does not cause disease in the body, but creates antibodies.
Zuridin Nurmatov
Unfortunately, many are wary of vaccination. Some people write: if you are vaccinated with the Chinese vaccine, you will speak Chinese for three days. This is fantasy. But people believe some fakes more than doctors.
— Many Kyrgyzstanis fear that «black» July may repeat in the country due to circulation of new strains.
— According to forecasts, the level of the third wave will be lower than the second — in October-November. Because the number of people who have antibodies is increasing every day. There will not be such a high incidence as last summer.
