According to the results of the first half of 2019, we can safely say: the economy of Kyrgyzstan has got out of stagnation. GDP has grown significantly, but the prices, on the contrary, remained almost at the same level.
Economy began to grow
In January — June 2019, Kyrgyzstan’s GDP was 232,560.1 billion soms. Compared with 2018, it grew by a record 6.4 percent.
But these figures are due to the fact that economy growth rates were low last year until the fourth quarter. This was associated with a slowdown in gold production.
But the growth was higher in 2017. Therefore, a comparison of the figures for the first half of 2017 and 2019 shows that the country’s economy grew by only 0.3 percent.
However, it is worth noting that, after a slight slowdown in May, economic growth accelerated by 0.8 percent. At present, GDP growth has reached the level of January 2019.
A much more realistic picture of what is happening in the economy is the economic growth rate excluding enterprises developing Kumtor mine. Last year, the indicators in this area were quite good and showed a stable growth.
In the first half of the year, non-Kumtor GDP amounted to 207,525 billion soms and grew by 2.1 percent compared to 2018.
It is interesting that the rates have improved over the month. The economy grew by 0.6 percent.
Industrial growth due to gold
The dependence of economic indicators on the level of gold production is clearly visible in the indicators of industrial production. In 2018, due to a decrease in extraction of the precious metal, the indicators were rather low. The growth was mainly due to the work of the garment and textile industries. But in 2019, the basis of industrial growth is already the mining sector.
According to the results of January-June 2019, Kyrgyzstan has manufactured industrial products in the amount of 127,522.3 billion soms. This is 19.7 percent more than in 2018.
According to the National Statistical Committee, the growth in industrial production is due to an increase in the production of base metals, the production of metal ores, coal, crude oil and natural gas, as well as in textile production.
At the same time, there was a decrease in the production of petroleum products (by 32.7 percent), pharmaceutical (by 18.3 percent) and chemical (by 4.2 percent) products, as well as clothing (by 11.8 percent).
Without enterprises developing Kumtor mine, the volume of industrial production amounted to 66,820.1 billion soms and decreased by 4.2 percent compared to 2018.
Potatoes grow, milk falls in price
In January-June, consumer prices in the republic as a whole grew by 0.3 percent. At the same time, consumer prices for food products and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 1.6 percent, alcoholic beverages and tobacco products — by 3.4 percent. On the contrary, prices and tariffs for non-food products fell by 2 percent, services — by 0.4 percent.
Since the beginning of the year, a decline in consumer prices and tariffs was observed in Osh region (by 0.3 percent) and Osh (by 0.7 percent).
The largest price increase (3.1 percent) was recorded in Issyk-Kul region, where, compared to other regions, food products and non-alcoholic beverages grew in price most of all in the first half of the year (by 6.3 percent).
The maximum increase in prices and tariffs for alcoholic beverages and tobacco products was also recorded in Issyk-Kul region (4.5 percent), services — in Talas region (1.4 percent), non-food items — in Osh (0.4 percent).
Mining salaries are growing
According to the National Statistical Committee, the average salary in Kyrgyzstan is 16,020 soms.
At the same time, the growth of average monthly salaries was observed at enterprises and organizations of all types of economic activity with the exception of enterprises and organizations engaged in the wholesale and retail trade, car and motorcycle repair, transportation and storage of goods, as well as other service activities.
In the first quarter of 2019, the subsistence minimum in the country amounted to 4,681.31 soms, for pensioners — 4,168.37 soms.