Economic growth in the oil and gas importing countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia region is expected to decline from 5.1 percent in 2018 to 4.5 percent in 2019-2020. New report Regional Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund says.
The decline is caused by weaker external demand and lower remittance inflows. All these are the consequences of a slowdown in trade partner countries, especially in Russia. Tajikistan is expected to experience the most significant decline in growth rates, as continued budget consolidation exacerbates the negative effect of reduced remittances.
«The conjuncture of the global financial market has recently become more favorable, but will probably remain volatile, and market sentiment may change dramatically. If this happens, the spreads can rise sharply, exposing countries to the risk of revaluation of foreign debt (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan) and financial sector tension (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan),» the report says.