An increase in economic activity is expected in Kyrgyzstan in 2019, which is largely due to optimistic gold production estimates. Macroeconomic review of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) says.
According to forecasts of Kumtor Gold Company, the volume of production at the enterprise in 2019 should be about 535,000-565,000 ounces versus 535,000 ounces produced in 2018. This may increase production to 5.7 percent.
According to expert estimates, in subsequent years, production at the enterprise will gradually decrease. Given the importance of the enterprise, its production results will largely determine the trajectory of GDP growth.
The EDB forecasts Kyrgyzstan’s GDP growth in 2019 at 4 percent.
«The economy can receive an additional growth impetus in 2019 from the fiscal sector. In 2018, the budget deficit formed at 1.1 percent of GDP, while the republican budget for 2018–2020 provided for a deficit of 3.6 percent in 2018 with a subsequent decrease to 1.2 percent of GDP by 2020,» statement says.
As economists of the bank stressed, the expected increase in the budget deficit in 2019 may provide additional support for economic growth, and maintaining of a positive growth rate in the countries — major trading partners will support growth in the medium term through remittance channels and export earnings.