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World Bank predicts Kyrgyzstan’s GDP growth at 3.4 percent in 2019

According to World Bank forecasts, Kyrgyzstan’s GDP growth in 2019 will be 3.4 percent. Its Global Economic Prospects: Darkening Skies report published in January says.

In 2020, GDP growth will reach 3.9 percent, in 2021 — 4 percent. Note, the Eurasian Development Bank predicts GDP growth at the level of 3.9 percent in 2019, the Ministry of Economy of Kyrgyzstan — 4 percent.

Productivity in the informal sector of Kyrgyzstan has declined significantly since 2009 despite the high productivity growth in the formal sector.

The World Bank

GDP growth in Central Asia is expected to be 4.2 percent in 2019, 4 percent — in 2020, and 4.1 percent — in 2021. The highest growth is predicted in Tajikistan (6 percent), Turkmenistan (5.6 percent) and Uzbekistan (5.1 percent).

The highest GDP growth in 2019 among the partners of Kyrgyzstan in the Eurasian Economic Union is expected in Armenia — 4.3 percent. Kazakhstan has slightly lower rates — 3.5 percent and Belarus — 2.7 percent. The lowest GDP growth forecast is for Russia — 1.5 percent.

The World Bank noted that economic growth fell to about 3.1 percent in 2018 in the Europe and Central Asia. This is due to the slowdown in the economies of Turkey and the countries of Central Europe. Turkey’s GDP growth forecast for 2019 was sharply revised due to significant financial stresses on the market and the associated economic consequences. This will eventually slow down regional growth in 2019 to 2.3 percent.

«It is expected that growth in the region will accelerate to 2.7 percent in 2020, since the recovery of growth in the Turkish economy will compensate for moderation in activity among other importers of goods. At the same time, risks for the region include the possibility of renewed stress in Turkey, along with larger than expected secondary effects for the rest of the region and unexpected shifts in policy,» the WB experts stressed.