Kyrgyzstan: what will happen to dollar in 2017. Experts’ opinions
Experts believe that dollar won't play dirty trick in the year of the Rooster. There also will be no repeat of the situation when Kyrgyzstan started 2016 with the dollar rate of 76 soms. This forced to take emergency measures, which made the dollar to stay at the level of not higher than 70 soms the whole year.++
Dollar to be kept for President
Doctor of Economics Tolonbek Abdyrov is sure that under natural conditions the KGS could hardly be a serious competitor to the dollar. Kyrgyzstan doesn't have much backlog to develop the economy in 2017. This means that there are no funds for the production, but the country has tough monetary policy.
"The authorities follow tough policy to keep inflation under control, don't give the possibility for prices to increase. At the same time, we import most of the goods, therefore, constantly need dollars. And if suddenly there are fluctuations on the foreign exchange market in the next year, the National Bank will sell dollars to stabilize the exchange rate," Tolonbek Abdyrov said to 24.kg news agency.
Economist is confident that the country will continue to follow the chosen course. Therefore, one shouldn't wait for a major change of the dollar rate. Also don't forget that presidential elections will be held next year.
"Fluctuations of the dollar are not advantageous for the authorities, so the process will be kept under strict control," Tolonbek Abdyrov noted.
Expert believes that the government not only keeps the dollar in check, but also doesn't allow throwing large amounts of national currency on the market. Because of this businessmen lack money, and therefore one can't rely on the development of production in 2017.
Virtual optimism
Economist Aiylchy Sarybaev agrees with colleague. He recalls that the gradual growth of the dollar exchange rate over the past five years shows the controllability of KGS. Expert thinks that it is not a big deal. He is confident that the National Bank of the republic successfully copes with the task of regulating the rate of KGS, using international reserves of the country.
"Thanks to this the National Bank to some extent smoothes out the impact of the global monetary, economic and financial crisis on the inflation processes in Kyrgyzstan. For example, in the past two years, the sharp exchange rate of tenge, Russian ruble and yuan didn't influence the exchange rate of som much. Although, we have a virtual economy, real sector doesn't affect the rate of som," Aiylchy Sarybaev says.
He noted that businesses can work more or less stable. Such a policy allows not to worry about the possibility of a sharp jump in prices.
"In 2017, sharp changes in the dollar exchange rate are not expected. There can be jumps of 1-2 soms," Aiylchy Sarybaev said.
At the same time, the economist predicts that the dollar still will be growing. But it will happen gradually. This is a worldwide trend. This is effect of the crisis in Russia and Kazakhstan, which are the main trade partners of Kyrgyzstan.
The main thing - no panic
The Chairman of the National Bank Tolkunbek Abdygulov sees no reason for panic and anxiety. The situation on the foreign exchange market is stable. From the beginning of the year, the som appreciated against the dollar by 8.5 percent.
If we talk about the possible currency fluctuations in the future, the Chairman of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic advises to focus on the state of the economies of Russia and Kazakhstan. The situation there has an indirect impact on the situation in Kyrgyzstan through remittances and investments.
"According to forecasts, economical growth in Russia and Kazakhstan is expected. I think that everything will be fine," Tolkunbek Abdygulov said.
In addition, the head of the National Bank recommends citizens not to panic. It is dangerous because people hurry to buy the currency, and then suffer from it.
"I always advise everyone that it is better to wait when something is not clear, and then everything will be good," Tolkunbek Abdygulov says.